Instructions

This page contains the instructions for participating in the competition. If you plan to enter the competition, then please create an account providing a valid e-mail address such that we can contact you.

Dataset

Participants are free to use whatever data they want as long as the data are publicly available. In addition, we provide a countries dataset containing ranking information and a players dataset containing personal details as well as basic statistics. The datasets are provided as comma-separated files and the data come from the official UEFA website, the official FIFA website, Transfermarkt, and World Football Elo Ratings. Specifically, the datasets contain the following information.

Countries (accurate as of 23 February 2016)

  1. Country: the country's name;
  2. FIFA ranking: the country's FIFA ranking;
  3. FIFA points: the country's FIFA points;
  4. UEFA ranking: the country's UEFA ranking;
  5. UEFA coefficient: the country's UEFA coefficient;
  6. ELO ranking: the country's ELO ranking;
  7. ELO points: the country's ELO points.

Players (accurate as of 23 February 2016)

  1. Name: the player's name;
  2. Transfermarkt id: the player's id on Transfermarkt;
  3. Transfermarkt name: the player's name on Transfermarkt;
  4. Nation: the player's nation;
  5. Market value: the player's market value on Transfermarkt;
  6. Date of birth: the player's date of birth;
  7. Age: the player's age;
  8. EURO 2016 matches: the player's number of appearances in the EURO 2016 qualifiers;
  9. EURO 2016 goals: the player's number of goals in the EURO 2016 qualifiers;
  10. All-time matches: the player's number of appearances in European Championship matches;
  11. All-time goals: the player's number of goals in European Championship matches;
  12. Career matches: the player's total number of international matches;
  13. Career goals: the player's total number of international goals.

Evaluation

Each submission will be evaluated by computing its multi-class logarithmic loss as explained on the Kaggle website.

Submission

The predictions need to be submitted as a comma-separated file following the format outlined below through the My predictions page. Participants are allowed to submit as many predictions as they want. However, we will only consider the most recent submission of each participant to compute the rankings.

Challenge 1

For the first challenge, we expect a comma-separated file containing exactly one line for each of the 276 possible match-ups. Each line contains the following five values:

  1. a three-letter abbreviation for the first country;
  2. a three-letter abbreviation for the second country;
  3. the win probability for the first country;
  4. the win probability for the second country;
  5. the draw probability.

The order of the countries does not matter as all matches will be played on a neutral field. For example, the entry bel,ita,0.45,0.35,0.20 is equivalent to the entry ita,bel,0.35,0.45,0.20. The order of the entries does not matter either. An example submission file can be downloaded here.

Challenge 2

For the second challenge, we expect a comma-separated file containing exactly one line for each of the 24 participating countries. Each line contains the following seven values:

  1. a three-letter country abbreviation;
  2. the probability of being eliminated in the group stage;
  3. the probability of being eliminated in the round of 16;
  4. the probability of being eliminated in the quarter-finals;
  5. the probability of being eliminated in the semi-finals;
  6. the probability of losing the final;
  7. the probability of winning the tournament.

The order of the countries does not matter. An example submission file can be downloaded here.

Country abbreviations